如何看待24年考研报名人数比23年下降近10% – 知乎(如何看待考公)
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img[data-uncomfortable]{content:url(data:image/svg+xml,%3csvg%20xmlns%3d%22http%3a%2f%2fwww.w3.org%2f2000%2fsvg%22%20viewbox%3d%220%200%20344.88888888888886%20194%22%3e%3cforeignobject%20width%3d%22344.88888888888886%22%20height%3d%22194%22%3e%0a%20%20%20%20%20%20%3cdiv%20xmlns%3d%22http%3a%2f%2fwww.w3.org%2f1999%2fxhtml%22%20style%3d%22font-size%3a%2013px%3b%20font-family%3a%20-apple-system%2c%20blinkmacsystemfont%2c%20microsoft%20yahei%2c%20sans-serif%3b%20color%3a%20%23fff%3b%20width%3a100%25%3b%20height%3a194px%3b%22%3e%0a%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%3cdiv%20style%3d%22display%3a%20flex%3b%20flex-direction%3a%20column%3b%20align-items%3a%20center%3b%20justify-content%3a%20center%3b%20height%3a%20100%25%3b%22%3e%0a%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%3csvg%20xmlns%3d%22http%3a%2f%2fwww.w3.org%2f2000%2fsvg%22%20width%3d%2218%22%20height%3d%2218%22%20viewbox%3d%220%200%2016%2016%22%20fill%3d%22currentcolor%22%3e%3cpath%20d%3d%22m8%203.65a7%207%200%2000-1.353.128.65.65%200%2011-.25-1.275a8.3%208.3%200%20018%202.35c2.387%200%204.172.954%205.357%202.125c14.511%205.615%2015.15%207.022%2015.15%208c0%20.621-.257%201.391-.699%202.134a7.076%207.076%200%2001-1.403%201.68l.495.46a.65.65%200%2011-.886.951l-.998-.929a.645.645%200%2001-.104-.097l9.73%2010.501a.647.647%200%2001-.29.301%203.15%203.15%200%2001-4.313-4.094.647.647%200%2001.234-.275l3.908%205.08a5.774%205.774%200%2000-1.283%201.522c2.282%207.198%202.15%207.707%202.15%208c0%20.522.41%201.616%201.407%202.6.965.954%202.43%201.75%204.443%201.75.468%200%20.905-.043%201.311-.12a.65.65%200%2001.243%201.277a8.322%208.322%200%20018%2013.65c-2.387%200-4.172-.954-5.357-2.125c1.49%2010.385.85%208.978.85%208c0-.598.238-1.333.648-2.046a7.054%207.054%200%20012.95%204.188l-.547-.509a.65.65%200%2011.886-.951l8.8%208.194a5.793%205.793%200%20001.244-1.453c.372-.624.516-1.163.516-1.469%200-.522-.41-1.616-1.407-2.6-.965-.954-2.43-1.75-4.443-1.75zm6.29%207.296a1.85%201.85%200%20002.534%202.36l-2.535-2.36zm8%204.85a.65.65%200%20100%201.3%201.85%201.85%200%20011.843%201.694.65.65%200%20101.296-.11a3.15%203.15%200%20008%204.85z%22%20fill-rule%3d%22evenodd%22%20clip-rule%3d%22evenodd%22%3e%3c%2fpath%3e%3c%2fsvg%3e%0a%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%3cdiv%20style%3d%22margin%3a%20.6em%200%201.2em%22%3e%e8%af%a5%e5%9b%be%e7%89%87%e6%9c%89%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e4%bc%9a%e5%bc%95%e8%b5%b7%e4%b8%8d%e9%80%82%3c%2fdiv%3e%0a%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%3cbutton%20style%3d%22padding%3a%204px%201em%3b%20font-size%3a%201.1em%3b%20color%3a%20inherit%3b%20background%3a%20none%3b%20border%3a%201px%20solid%20rgba%28255%2c255%2c255%2c.5%29%3b%20border-radius%3a%209999px%3b%22%3e%e7%bb%a7%e7%bb%ad%e6%9f%a5%e7%9c%8b%3c%2fbutton%3e%0a%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%3c%2fdiv%3e%0a%20%20%20%20%20%20%3c%2fdiv%3e%0a%20%20%20%20%3c%2fforeignobject%3e%3c%2fsvg%3e);width:100%;height:194px;background:url(https://pic1.zhimg.com/v2-cf70d0759d787c70091857151c1cad4a.jpeg) no-repeat rgba(191,191,191,0.7);background-size:cover;cursor:pointer!important;}.css-jflero img.content_image[data-size=”normal”],.css-jflero img.origin_image[data-size=”normal”]{width:100%;max-width:100%;}.css-jflero img.content_image[data-size=”small”],.css-jflero img.origin_image[data-size=”small”]{width:320px;max-width:100%;}@-webkit-keyframes animation-1yvu044{from{opacity:0;}to{opacity:1;}}@keyframes animation-1yvu044{from{opacity:0;}to{opacity:1;}}24考研人数为438万，是近三年最低值，感觉23、24考研人数已经到了一个峰值，后面的年份考研人数也许会降下来，但是不会降得很快，想要回到过去只有100、200万考研人数几乎是不可能的。但是，考研人数下降只代表了整体趋势，不代表个人考生一定能吃到其中的福利。
从整体考研人数来看，考研人数下降是必然的。过去3-4年，由于口罩问题的影响，大批应届本科毕业生就业问题比较大，就业难导致很多考生不得不加入考研大军，从而导致过去三年考研人数水涨船高。
现在口罩问题过去了，在过去三年里考研人（尤其是二战、三战）基本消化完毕，其中能上岸的早就上岸了，没上岸的估计也不会硬着头皮再去考了。所以，如果给考研人数构成细分一下，我估计应届本科毕业生考研人数基本和前两年持平，二战三战（往届生）的考研人数可能会有所下降。
考研人数下降第二个原因，我认为是国家线给出的劝退效应。从18年开始，几乎所有的一级学科的国家线涨幅至少在10分，甚至有的一级学科涨幅高达20+。我自己考的专业算是文学类的，18考研文学的国家线（a区）只有345分，而22考研文学的国家线（a区）达到惊人的367分，不到5年的时间国家线涨幅已经超过了20分，当然不止文学这一个学科大类，其它学科大类都出现了这种情况。
此外，我认为去年国家线降幅很大程度上没有达到很多考生的预期。去年考研情况比较特殊，大部分考生考研时候的状态都不太好，这也就导致很多学科的国家线有降分的情况。在去年国家线出来之前，很多考研博主包括我也对国家线进行过预测，普遍预测23考研国家线会和21考研国家线持平。但最后国家线公布后，很多考生应该都大失所望，部分学科降分力度完全不够，甚至一些学科出现逆势上涨的情况。
综合以上两点，国家线上岸幅度大，降分幅度小构成的国家线劝退效应可能是导致考研人数下降的主要原因。
从考生个人角度而言，相比去年考研人数降幅为19万人，几乎可以忽略不计。我们知道考研不是和这438万人一起竞争，而是和你报考院校、报考专业的考生竞争。国内有那么多所高校开设研究生院，又有那么多专业，降幅19万人匀到每个学校、每个专业后，降幅几乎可以忽略不计。
很大程度上，可能会出现某个学校考研人数大幅降低，而另一个学校考研人数大幅上涨，如果你要是报考的是那所考研人数大幅上涨的院校呢？这也就意味着你完全没有吃到今年考研人数下降的福利。
同时，每年国家研究生录取人数比例是相对固定的（浮动不会很大，除非像20年扩招），考研人数减少，自然录取人数就会减少一些，这对考研人来说完全不属于利好。
这边最后给今年考研er们一个建议:考研人数下降这个数据看着图一乐就行了，自己是完全不知道能不能吃到这个考研人数下降的红利，而且这和自己其实完全没有关系。现在应该做的就是想办法在最后一个月的备考期内想办法查缺补漏，政治该背的背，专业课真题该刷就应该刷起来，不要因为公布了这个数据就万事大吉了，在没上岸之前，一切利好都不能算真正的利好！！！
最后祝各位今年考研的小伙伴们都能一战上岸，冲冲冲！！！
我是@一袋米我要扛两楼，专注于考研干货分享，已毕业mtier一枚，现是翻译打工仔一枚。如果觉得我的回答对你有 助的话，动动你的小手点赞喔，你们的点赞就是我创作干货的最大动力！
如果有考研或者翻硕择校、catti方面的问题，欢迎前来咨询哦~